More traveling by car, but fewer by air
From KTVZ.COM news sources
AAA projects 38.4 million Americans will be traveling 50 miles or more away from home over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 1.4 percent increase over last year, when 37.8 million traveled.
In the Pacific region (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska and Hawaii), 4.6 million travelers are expected to hit the road for the holiday weekend, an increase of 8.3 percent from last year. Regional growth rates range from a low of just .3 percent in the Mountain region, to more than 8 percent in the Pacific and New England regions.
"Although many Americans are very concerned about the economy and many face financial challenges or are still unemployed, AAA's projected increase in Thanksgiving travel is another sign that economic conditions are stabilizing or even improving in some areas, and we're seeing an uptick in the travel industry as a whole," says AAA Oregon/Idaho Public Affairs Director Marie Dodds.
"Here in the Pacific region, travel is expected to increase after three consecutive years of travel declines. The recession hit the West particularly hard, but the situation finally seems to be getting a little better."
So far this decade, the number of travelers over Thanksgiving has ranged from a high of 58.6 million in 2005 to a low of 37.8 million travelers last year. 2009 is shaping up to have the third lowest number of travelers since 2000.
Last year, Thanksgiving travel was down a whopping 25.2 percent in the wake of the economic collapse and the ongoing housing and financial crisis.
"This year's expected increase in travel reflects improved consumer confidence from one year ago, better financial market performance and a growing sense among many consumers that the worst of the global economic crisis is behind us," adds Dodds.
Most travel to Thanksgiving destinations by car, fewer travel by air
AAA says 86 percent of Thanksgiving travelers (33.2 million Americans or 10.9 percent of the population) are expected to travel by car, an increase of 2.1 percent over last year.
Fuel prices are expected to be about 70 cents a gallon higher this year than last Thanksgiving, but consumer confidence has risen over the past year and higher gas prices aren't making people cancel their Thanksgiving travel plans. Also, many travelers cut costs over the holiday by staying with family and friends.
Six percent of Thanksgiving travelers will fly (2.3 million Americans or .8 percent of the population) compared to 2.5 million in 2008, a decline of 6.7 percent.
The number of those traveling by "other" means, including, trains, watercraft, buses and multiple-modes of transportation, is expected to be 2.9 million (eight percent of holiday travelers) compared to 2.8 million last year, an increase of 1.2 percent.
In the Pacific region, 3.9 million travelers or 8 percent of the population will go by car, which is a 9.1 percent increase over 2008. Less than half of one percent (.4 percent) will travel by air, a drop of 1.1 percent. And .3 percent are expected to travel by other means, an increase of 9.2 percent.
This year's decrease in the number of air travelers continues a decade-long trend in which air travel as a percentage of total Thanksgiving travel has declined substantially.
Since 2000, the number of Americans traveling by air during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend has dropped an astounding 62 percent.
While much of this decrease can be attributed to ongoing economic difficulties, the air travel experience itself has undergone a substantial change since the 1990s with stricter airport security, more frequent flight delays, reduced capacity, and added surcharges and fees all contributing to the decline.
Average spending will be $718 and average distance traveled will be 815 miles
Thanksgiving travelers expect to spend approximately $718 per household this upcoming holiday weekend.
With the main purpose of Thanksgiving holiday being a special meal with family and friends, it is not surprising that only 15.7 percent of spending will be for accommodations, while 32 percent will be for transportation. Food and beverage will absorb 21 percent of spending and shopping will account for 16 percent. Entertainment and recreation will account for 10 percent of spending on average. "Other" or miscellaneous spending is five percent.
Thanksgiving travelers will go an average of 815 miles roundtrip this upcoming holiday weekend. More than one-third (37 percent) of travelers will travel 250 miles or less round trip. Slightly less than one-quarter (24 percent) of weekend travelers will log between 251 and 700 miles. And 38 percent will travel more than 700 miles round trip.
Travelers in the Pacific Northwest are expected to spend more than the national average at $817. One reason is because of higher fuel costs on the West Coast. Average distance traveled is less than the national average at 664 miles.
Airfare, lodging and rental car costs will all be lower
According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index -- a monitor of pricing in 20 popular cities across the US for hotel and car rentals, as well as 40 pairs of cities for air travel pricing -- the lowest average published airfares over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend are expected to decrease four percent from last year to an average of $170 per roundtrip ticket.
Car rental rates are down three percent to an average of $44 per day for a mid-size car versus $45 per day last year. Rates for AAA Three Diamond lodgings are expected to be 11 percent less than last year with travelers spending an average of $128 per night. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond lodgings will pay 13 percent less than last year; an average of $92 per night.
Holiday Forecast Methodology
AAA's projections are based on research conducted by IHS Global Insight. The Lexington, Mass.-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA earlier this year as part of an agreement to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. For purposes of this forecast the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as trips that include travel of 50 miles or more away from home during the period from Wednesday, November 25 to Sunday, November 29. The complete AAA / IHS Global Insight 2009 Thanksgiving holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.
