But appraisal expert finds it hard to fathom
By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM
It may not seem that way to Realtors or others struggling to make a go of it in Central Oregon's decidedly cooler home-building industry, but a national study claims the Bend area still has the most "extremely overvalued" housing market in the country - 43 percent overvalued, as a matter of fact.
Last week's third-quarter report from Global Insight (www.globalinsight.com), an economic and financial analysis and forecasting firm, found that overall, U.S. house prices have fallen 6.5 percent from their 2007 peak.
The analysis found that the median home price in the Bend metro area (defined as all of Deschutes County) was $276,900 in the third quarter. And it said that price was 43 percent overvalued, despite dropping from $286,300 from the second quarter and $315,100 in the third quarter of 2007 - when the report found Bend home prices were 62.3 percent overvalued.
Bend's third-quarter peak was in 2006, when a $318,800 median for Bend home prices was deemed 65.6 percent overvalued, also topping the nation. (Comparatively, Bend's median price of $202,400 in the third quarter of 2004 was considered only 16.5 percent overvalued.)
The study is a joint effort by HIS Global Insight and National City Corp., "to determine what home prices should be, accounting for differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates, and historically observed market premiums or discounts," a news release stated.
The rest of the top 5 on the overvalued list: Atlantic City, N.J.; St. George, Utah; Honolulu, Hawaii; and Longview, Wash. (Atlantic City and St. George are the only places that join Bend in the "extremely overvalued" category at present.)
But with Honolulu's median price at $650,800 and Longview's at $205,900, a Bend real estate expert says it's hard to see how the Global Insight report relates to what one's seeing in Bend now.
"I guess I have a little problem with this whole overvalued interpretation," said Cal Gabert, residential manager for Bratton Appraisal Services in Bend. "I've heard we're overvalued before, but we're still somewhat of a resort community. We have a lot to offer that isn't available in other places."
"Bend still is right now a good value," Gabert said Friday. "It's statistical analysis. I guess, if you're trying to get to the average of something, I'm not sure it tells you a whole lot on a national basis."
Still, Gabert said, "If you move to Bend, you'd better have employment figured out. A lot of retired people move here," and to Gabert's way of thinking, Bend homes are becoming more of a value all the time.
